Denver on a neutral court, you have to factor in how good Denver is at home. Even if you have the Suns as a 1.5-3-point favorite vs. Denver is -2.5, which essentially suggests that this is pretty solidly Suns favored on a neutral court. He needs to at least survive his roll, if not thrive, in certain games to help them win. You match Indiana’s offer because you need him for this series. But Ayton is the guy whose coach is constantly sneering at, whose teammates are constantly frustrated by, and who really wanted to be gone in restricted free agency. The Nuggets will get better at timing up their rotations as the series goes on, so he has to do work early to force that adjustment and allow for counter-adjustments by Phoenix.īook and KD are Book and KD, and while Chris Paul is not as good as he once was, he’s as good once as he ever was. When the Nuggets blitz the ball handler to get the ball out of their hands, Ayton can take the short jumper or look to pass to the corner. On the other end, Ayton will have chances on the short roll as a creator. Having to go to Durant at the five would space the floor but make it easier for Jokic to wear Durant down and potentially get him in foul trouble. Having to go to Bismack Biyombo would be a disaster. Jokic, whether giving up too much efficiency or fouls, the whole team construct falls apart. Overs are going to be good moves in this series until the market adjusts.Īs mentioned above, after Ayton’s success against Jokic two years ago, Jokic did what he typically does: destroy guys once he figures them out. But the efficiency is going to be through the roof. The Nuggets and Suns both play slow they both finished bottom 10 in Pace. The Nuggets ranked 11th in percentage of times they scored on offensive rebounds this season. The Suns gave up the 10th-most second-chance points in the league per 100 possessions this season Denver didn’t create many second chance points in the regular season, but that’s because their offense is already efficient. The Nuggets are the eighth-worst isolation defensive team this season and seventh-worst in the playoffs. The Suns ran the most isolation plays of any team in the playoffs in the first round. There are few-to-no defenders on Earth who can even bother him, and none of them play for the Nuggets. If Ayton can’t handle Jokic 1-on-1, the Suns will likely feel compelled to bring help, and that’s when the Nuggets’ offense hits you in waves.ĭurant shot 4-of-5 against Aaron Gordon this season. ![]() Since then, Jokic is 21-of-33 from the field, scoring 48 points, 17 assists in 29 minutes and 30 seconds of matchup time over the past two seasons.
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